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Federal Reserve officials were wary of cutting interest rates too quickly this year, according to a record of their last meeting in January, as they remained “highly attentive” to the risk of resurgent inflation.
根据美联储1月最近一次会议的记录，美联储官员对今年过快降息持谨慎态度，他们仍“高度关注”通胀回升的风险。
While rate-setters were content with progress on reducing inflation and meeting the Fed’s goal of full employment, the minutes confirmed their view that it was too soon to consider cutting rates from their 23-year high of between 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.
虽然利率制定者们对在降低通胀和实现美联储充分就业目标方面取得的进展感到满意，但会议纪要证实了他们的观点，即现在考虑将利率从5.25%至5.5%的23年高点下调还为时过早。
“Participants noted that the economic outlook was uncertain and that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks,” the record of the meeting, published on Wednesday, said.
周三公布的会议记录称：“与会者指出，经济前景不明朗，他们仍高度关注通胀风险。”
Market reactions were muted, with US stocks on Wednesday recovering from a brief dip and the two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, quickly reversing a modest rise. Bets on the pace of Fed rate cuts this year were little changed.
市场反应平淡，周三美国股市从短暂下跌中回升，随利率预期变动的两年期国债收益率迅速扭转了小幅上升的趋势。市场对美联储今年降息步伐的押注几乎没有变化。
The release of the minutes come three weeks after Jay Powell used his post-meeting press conference on January 31 to push back against markets’ expectations that the central bank would begin cutting rates as soon as March — a hawkish stance that sparked a sell-off across US equity markets.
会议纪要发布三周前，杰伊•鲍威尔在1月31日的会后新闻发布会上反驳了市场对央行最快将于3月开始降息的预期，这一鹰派立场引发了美国股市的抛售。
Powell also confirmed in January that the Federal Open Market Committee would begin discussions on when to start slowing the sale of US government bonds to reduce the size of its balance sheet.
鲍威尔还在1月份证实，联邦公开市场委员会将开始讨论何时开始放缓美国政府债券的销售，以缩小其资产负债表规模。
The Fed has been allowing as much as $60bn worth of Treasuries and $35bn of mortgage-backed securities to roll off its balance sheet under its so-called quantitative tightening programme.
根据所谓的量化紧缩计划，美联储一直允许其资产负债表上价值多达600亿美元的国债和350亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券到期不续。
The Fed bought trillions of dollars in US government debt during the early stages of the pandemic to stave off a market meltdown. But that policy ended in 2022 as inflation soared.
美联储在疫情初期购买了数万亿美元的美国政府债券，以避免市场崩盘。但随着通胀飙升，这项政策在2022年结束。
According to the minutes officials discussed “an eventual decision to slow the pace of run-off” — an indication that a slowdown in the pace of QT could still be a way off.
根据会议纪要，官员们讨论了“放缓被动缩表步伐的最终决定”——表明放缓量化宽松的步伐可能仍需一段时间。
On rate cuts, the minutes were largely in line with the more hawkish stance taken by Powell after last month’s meeting, when he used the news conference to say that while the Fed’s next move would be to reduce rates, officials’ “base case” did not include a cut at the next meeting on March 20.
在降息问题上，会议纪要与鲍威尔在上月会议后采取的更为鹰派的立场基本一致，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，虽然美联储的下一步行动将是降息，但官员们的“基本情况”并不包括在3月20日的下次会议上降息。
Hotter-than-expected inflation data in recent weeks has also tempered market expectations for as many as six cuts this year. Traders are now banking on four, starting in June. The Fed’s most recent guidance pointed to three cuts this year.
最近几周比预期更热的通胀数据也削弱了市场对今年多达六次降息的预期。现在，交易员们预计将有四次减息，从6月份开始。美联储最新的指引指出今年将降息三次。
Since the Fed’s last meeting, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 3.1 per cent in the year to January, a fall from 3.4 per cent in December — but a smaller improvement in the data than had been expected.
自美联储上次会议以来，美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)报告称，在截至1月份的一年中，消费者物价上涨了3.1%，低于12月的3.4%——但数据改善幅度小于预期。
The closely watched measure of core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, remained at 3.9 per cent.
备受关注的核心通胀指标（剔除了波动较大的食品和能源部分）仍为3.9%。
But sharp falls in inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, over the second half of 2023 had boosted hopes of rate cuts this year. Annualised PCE inflation for the past six months is now below the Fed’s goal.
但美联储偏爱的个人消费支出指数所衡量的通胀率在2023年下半年的大幅下降，提升了今年降息的希望。过去六个月的年化PCE通胀率目前低于美联储的目标。
However, while rate-setters acknowledged “significant progress” in their quest to drive inflation back towards the goal of 2 per cent, they said it reflected “idiosyncratic” factors.
然而，尽管利率制定者承认在将通胀推回2%的目标方面取得了“重大进展”，但他们表示这反映了“特殊的”因素。
Some officials warned of “downside risks” to the economy this year, including slower consumer spending, which could hit forecasts for gross domestic product growth of 1.4 per cent.
一些官员警告今年的经济面临的“下行风险”，包括消费者支出放缓，可能会打击对国内生产总值增长1.4%的预期。
While American consumers helped make the US the best economic performer in the G7 this year, some committee members flagged that the finances of poorer and middle-income households were becoming stretched.
虽然美国消费者帮助美国成为七国集团中经济表现最好的国家，但一些委员会成员指出，贫困和中等收入家庭的财务状况正变得紧张。
“They pointed to increased usage of credit card revolving balances and buy now, pay later services, as well as increased delinquency rates for some types of consumer loans,” the minutes said.
会议纪要称：“他们指出，信用卡循环余额和先买后付服务的使用有所增加，某些类型的消费贷款的拖欠率也有所上升。”