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In 2019, the House of Commons unanimously passed legislation committing the UK to a legally binding target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, an unusual display of parliamentary unity. That political consensus is now under strain.
新保守党领袖凯米•巴德诺赫一再批评净零目标，奈杰尔•法拉奇的改革党——尽管只有少数议员——公开反对这一目标。
New Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch has repeatedly criticised the net zero target, and Nigel Farage’s Reform party — albeit with only a handful of MPs — is openly hostile to it.
英国首相基尔•斯塔默爵士表示，他坚定地致力于实现气候目标，他的工党在下议院拥有绝大多数席位。
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, whose Labour party enjoys a huge majority in the House of Commons, says he is firmly committed to the climate target.
然而，尽管批评者持怀疑态度，他坚持认为可以在不大幅改变消费者行为的情况下实现该目标，比如减少飞行次数或减少食用肉类。
Yet he insists — to critics’ scepticism — that it can be achieved without big changes to consumer behaviour, such as reducing flights or eating less meat.
斯塔默政府正面临着一个关键时刻，因为它将推动产业转向电动汽车和电热泵等低碳产品，而消费者对这些产品的需求尚不确定。上周，业界就电动汽车和热泵目标进行的游说表明，如果政府坚持其承诺，将面临巨大压力。
Starmer’s government faces a moment of truth as it pushes industry towards low-carbon products such as electric vehicles and electric heat pumps for which consumer demand is uncertain. Last week, industry lobbying over targets for EVs and heat pumps demonstrated the pressure the government will face if it sticks to its pledges.
根据2019年更新的《气候变化法》，英国承诺到2050年实现碳净零排放，并制定了日益严格的五年“碳预算”的明确轨迹。
Under the 2019 update to the Climate Change Act, the UK is committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 with a clear trajectory of increasingly tough five-year “carbon budgets”.
凯米•巴德诺赫没有要求废除零净排放目标，但在2022年，她将其描述为“单边经济裁军”。
Badenoch has stopped short of calling for the net zero target to be abolished, but in 2022 she described it as “unilateral economic disarmament”.
在竞选领导人期间，她从气候行动怀疑论组织Net Zero Watch主席Neil Record手中收受了10,000英镑，同时还利用他的房子作为竞选办公室。
During her leadership campaign she took £10,000 from Neil Record, chair of Net Zero Watch, a climate action-sceptical group, while also using his house as a campaign office.
她在保守党会议上宣称：“我不是气候怀疑论者。但我是一个净零怀疑论者”。一位盟友表示，她认为这一目标使英国变得脆弱，并“过度依赖中国”，中国是世界上最大的绿色技术出口国。
She declared at the Tory conference: “I’m not a climate sceptic. But I am a net zero sceptic.” One ally said she believed the target had left Britain vulnerable and with an “undue reliance on China”, the world’s biggest exporters of green technology.
周四，巴德诺赫表示，斯塔默“急于进一步削减我们的排放量”——指的是在COP29峰会上宣布的到2035年将实现81%的减排目标——这是将“短期宣传”置于长期规划之上。
On Thursday Badenoch said Starmer’s “rush to a further cut in our emissions” — referring to a new target announced at the COP29 summit of an 81 per cent cut by 2035 — was prioritising “short-term publicity” over long-term planning.
她的立场与2021年在格拉斯哥举行的COP26会谈期间保守党首相鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)相去甚远，后者是2050年净零排放的热情倡导者。
Her position is a far cry from Boris Johnson, Tory prime minister during the COP26 talks in Glasgow in 2021, who was a passionate advocate for Net Zero 2050.
斯塔默表示，三年前的格拉斯哥会谈期间存在“真正的团结”。
Starmer said there had been a “real unity” during those Glasgow talks three years ago.
他周四对下议院表示：“我认为，巴德诺赫现在采取了攻击设定目标这一想法的立场，这表明对面的政党已经堕落到何种地步。”
“I think the fact that [Badenoch] has now taken the position she has of attacking the very idea of setting targets shows just how far the party opposite has fallen,” he told the Commons on Thursday.
与此同时，改革党将反绿色政策置于其平台的核心，誓言彻底废除净零目标，声称这一举措导致能源成本飙升，"让我们变得更加贫困和寒冷"。副领袖理查德•泰斯(Richard Tice)表示，他希望在下一次选举中对抗"净零的极端狂热"。改革党只有五名议员，但民意调查显示它获得了18%选民支持。
Meanwhile, Reform has put anti-green policies at the centre of its platform, vowing it would scrap the net zero target altogether, which it claims has sent energy costs soaring and is “making us poorer and colder”. Deputy leader Richard Tice says he wants to fight the next election against the “extreme cult of net zero”. Reform only has five MPs but polls indicate it has the support of 18 per cent of voters.
英国绿色和平组织政策主任道格•帕尔(Doug Parr)说，工党拥有绝大多数席位，不太可能在短期内“退缩”。
Doug Parr, policy director for Greenpeace UK, said Labour had a large majority and was unlikely to “go into retreat” any time soon.
他认为：“就公众对气候变化的态度而言，英国不是美国。改革党选民往往更倾向于净零怀疑论，但他们并不反对气候行动。如果保守党越来越多地采取净零或气候怀疑论的态度，那么他们就是在给自己的选票设置上限”。
“The UK is not the US in terms of public attitudes to climate change. Reform voters tend to be more net zero sceptic, but they are not opposed to climate action,” he argued. “If the Tories increasingly adopt a net zero or climate sceptic attitude, they are putting a ceiling on their own votes.”
但绿色联盟政治主任克里斯•维纳布尔斯表示，该组织对语气的转变“非常震惊。对于英国的气候政治来说，这是一个非常令人担忧的时刻。”
But Chris Venables, director of politics at Green Alliance, said the group was “really alarmed” by the shift in tone. “It’s a really worrying time for climate politics in the UK.”
More in Common的民调显示，英国没有一个选区的选民对气候变化的关注度低于50%，YouGov在7月份的民调显示，74%的公众支持净零排放目标，高于4月份的69%。
Polling by More in Common shows there is no constituency in Britain where concern about climate change is lower than 50 per cent of voters, and a YouGov poll in July found that 74 per cent of the public support the net zero target, up from 69 per cent in April.
但是，选民广泛支持绿色政策并不等于他们愿意为这些政策买单。
But voters broadly supporting green policies is not the same as them being willing to pay for them.
最近几天发生了两次重大政策转变，显示了在不惩罚消费者或行业的情况下实现绿色发展的挑战。
There have been two significant policy shifts in recent days illustrating the challenge of going green without penalising consumers or industry.
首先，部长们正在寻找漏洞，以帮助汽车制造商应对一项旷日持久的“电动汽车任务”，根据该任务，电动汽车的销量比例每年都必须上升。其次，政府计划从明年4月起，将对未能售出足够热泵的锅炉制造商的罚款从每台3000英镑降至500英镑。
Firstly, ministers are seeking loopholes to help carmakers hit a stretching “electric vehicle mandate” under which a rising percentage of sales must be EVs every year. Secondly, the government cut the level of planned fines from next April from £3,000 to £500 per unit for boilermakers who fail to sell enough heat pumps.
维纳布尔斯说：“我们有一项真正的工作要阐明为什么所有这些政策都很重要，并将其转化至这个国家人民的现实生活中。政府在推进政策时必须小心谨慎，不能操之过急，这样才能让公众与政府同行。”
“There is a real job on our hands to articulate why all of this policy matters and translate it back to the lived reality of people in this country,” said Venables. “The government has to be really careful about not going too fast in pushing forward on policy, in order to bring the public with them.”
工党声称其绿色政策将在2030年前将能源账单减少300英镑。但该分析受到了批评，因为其基于能源智库Ember的研究，后者以2023年秋季为起点，当时账单因能源危机的连锁影响而较高。
Labour has claimed its green policies will cut energy bills by £300 by 2030. But its analysis has been criticised as it was based on research by the energy think-tank Ember, which took as its starting point autumn 2023 when bills were high due to the knock-on effects of the energy crisis.
自那时以来，电费已经显著下降。影子能源大臣克莱尔•库蒂尼奥(Claire Coutinho)声称这一数字是“谎言”。
Electricity bills have already fallen significantly since then. Claire Coutinho, shadow energy secretary, has claimed the figure is a “lie”.
工党发言人周六表示，工党致力于实现到2030年将电费比2024年的平均水平最多减少300英镑的目标。
A Labour spokesman said on Saturday that it was committed to the goal of cutting bills by up to £300 by 2030, compared to 2024 averages.
并非所有保守党议员都同意巴德诺赫的立场。智库能源与气候情报局最近的一项民意调查发现，支持净零排放的保守党议员比例从大选前的70%上升到大选后的81%，尽管这是基于一个大幅减少的群体。
Not all Tory MPs agree with Badenoch’s stance. A poll by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think-tank recently found the proportion of Conservative MPs supportive of net zero rose from 70 per cent before the general election to 81 per cent after — albeit based on a much reduced cohort.
地球之友科学、政策和研究主管Mike Childs表示，一些右翼政客“不负责任”，试图“制造一场文化战争”。
Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, said some rightwing politicians were being “irresponsible” and attempting to “create a culture war”.
他说，工党面临的巨大挑战是“让人们相信，他们将要采取的措施是公平的，不会对那些在生活成本中挣扎的人们造成过大的影响”。