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Financial history is littered with weird and wonderful examples of collateral. In the 19th century, for instance, Peru used its future earnings from guano — a substance made from bat, bird and seal droppings — to secure loans for large-scale projects. The pooey mixture was an effective fertiliser, and readily available in the nearby Chincha Islands. Today, securities are thankfully less pungent, though not necessarily less toxic. Dodgy mortgage-backed securities helped trigger the 2008 financial crisis. What, then, to make of the latest financial innovation: collateralised artificial intelligence chips?
金融史上充斥着各种稀奇古怪的抵押品例子。例如，在19世纪，秘鲁利用鸟粪石（一种由蝙蝠、鸟类和海豹排泄物形成的物质）的未来收益，为大型项目贷款作担保。这种粪便混合物是一种高效肥料，在附近的钦查群岛很容易获得。如今，令人庆幸的是，证券不再那么刺鼻，但毒性未必变小了。善于骗人的抵押贷款支持证券引发了2008年的金融危机。那么，如何看待最新的金融创新：以人工智能芯片作为贷款抵押品？
The Financial Times has reported that Wall Street’s largest financial institutions had loaned more than $11bn to “neocloud” groups, backed by their possession of Nvidia’s AI chips. These companies include names such as CoreWeave, Crusoe and Lambda, and provide cloud computing services to tech businesses building AI products. They have acquired tens of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) through partnerships with the chipmaker. And with capital expenditure on data centres surging, in the rush to develop AI models, the company’s chips have become a precious commodity.
据英国《金融时报》报道，华尔街最大金融机构已向“新云端”集团提供了超过110亿美元贷款，抵押品是这些公司拥有的英伟达人工智能芯片。这些公司包括CoreWeave、Crusoe和Lambda等，它们为打造人工智能产品的科技企业提供云计算服务。它们通过与英伟达合作，获得了数以万计的英伟达GPU。随着数据中心的资本支出激增，在开发人工智能模型的热潮中，英伟达的芯片已成为一种珍贵的商品。
Euphoria over new technologies often goes hand in hand with financial innovation, which also reinforces it. Two centuries ago, during the railway boom in America and Britain, some railroad companies secured loans to lay more tracks, backed in part by their existing routes. Neoclouds are emulating them today. They provide data storage infrastructure for AI developers via power-purchase agreements. The loans they obtain from the likes of Blackstone, Pimco, Carlyle and BlackRock, secured by Nvidia chips, then allow them to buy more chips. In the event of a default, the lenders would acquire their chips and leasing contracts.
对新技术的狂热往往伴随着金融创新，而金融创新也会强化这种狂热。两个世纪前，在美国和英国的铁路热潮中，一些铁路公司获得了贷款以铺设更多的铁轨，部分由现有线路作为抵押。如今，新云端公司正在效仿它们。它们通过能源购买协议为人工智能开发者提供数据存储基础设施。他们以英伟达芯片为抵押，从黑石、太平洋投资、凯雷和贝莱德等公司获得贷款，然后就能够购买更多芯片。如果发生违约，贷款人将得到他们的芯片和租赁合同。
The rapid growth of a new debt market in a still nascent industry requires a note for caution. First, chips are unlikely to hold their collateral value over the long-term. Although GPU demand remains high, supply has risen as hardware reserves have been resold and could rise even further when leasing contracts expire. New chips developed by Nvidia, or its wannabe competitors, which include Microsoft, Google and Amazon, could also undermine the value of existing collateral.
在一个尚处于起步阶段的行业中，新债务市场的快速增长需要谨慎对待。首先，芯片不太可能长期保持其抵押品价值。尽管GPU需求仍然很高，但随着硬件储备被转售，供应量已经增加，在租赁合同到期时可能会进一步增加。英伟达或其潜在竞争对手（包括微软、谷歌和亚马逊）开发的新芯片也可能削弱现有抵押品的价值。
Second, the deals may stretch valuations in the sector. The precise details of the arrangements between Nvidia and the neoclouds are unclear. But the chipmaker is itself an investor in some of the start-ups, which are in turn among its largest customers. Armed with Nvidia chips to secure loans, the cloud providers can then use the capital to buy more chips from Nvidia. This dynamic could inflate Nvidia’s earnings, and means the neocloud groups risk becoming highly leveraged, too. Third, the tie-ups with cloud providers could allow Nvidia to maintain the dominance of its chips, which adds to market concentration risks.
其次，这些交易可能会高估该行业的估值。目前尚不清楚英伟达与这些新云端公司之间安排的确切细节。但这家芯片制造商本身就是其中一些初创公司的投资者，而这些公司又是其最大客户。利用英伟达芯片作为抵押获得贷款，云计算提供商随后可以利用这些资金从英伟达购买更多芯片。这种做法可能会使英伟达的利润膨胀，也意味着新云端公司也有可能变得负债过高。第三，与云计算提供商的合作可以让英伟达保持其芯片的主导地位，这增加了市场集中风险。
The chips-for-security trend is still young, and based on current lending volumes Wall Street’s largest financiers are perhaps not too concerned about their exposure just yet. But the development does shine a light on some risky lending, circular financing and competition dynamics that are propping up the AI boom. Investors ought to be wary of the potential pitfalls. Nvidia may be wise to draw clearer lines between its commercial and venture interests, which would support market transparency.
芯片换证券的趋势仍处于起步阶段，根据目前的借贷规模，华尔街最大的金融家目前可能还不太担心他们的风险敞口。但这一事态发展确实揭示了支撑人工智能热潮的一些高风险借贷、循环融资和竞争态势。投资者应该警惕潜在的陷阱。英伟达在商业利益和风险投资利益之间划清界限可能是明智的，这将有助于提高市场透明度。
Financial innovation is often positive, and done well, it can channel capital to growth-enhancing projects. But as billions of dollars continue to flow into AI infrastructure, the pressure on developers to generate revenue is mounting. If risky and opaque financial engineering continues to feed the frenzy, prices risk moving further from reality. In that case, the deeper and wider any pain will be should there be a correction.
金融创新往往是积极的，做得好的话，它可以将资本引向促进增长的项目。但是，随着数十亿美元继续流入人工智能基础设施，开发者创收的压力也越来越大。如果高风险和不透明的金融工程继续助长这种狂热，价格有可能进一步偏离现实。在这种情况下，一旦出现修正，造成的痛苦将更加深远和广泛。